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Wednesday, May 21, 2014

Managing money under Modi

Business Standard presents expert views on what changes can help improve the prospects of various asset classes

Friday, May 16, 2014

Acche NaMo, Acche din, Sabse Accha Bharat !

I am at London airport in transit... everyone, means everyone is talking about the India election results !

I cant contain my excitement myself ! It feels like a historic day. A day when people of the biggest democracy of the world got the sweet fruit of making their voice heard !

This is the power of conviction. The power of effort. The power of change. The power of seeing dreams. The power of the common man.You and Me !

Narendra Modiji , Hearty Hearty Congratulations on this sweeping victory. Every rally of yours, every interview of yours, every interaction of yours was a lesson for us !

A lesson on-

1) Having a big vision

2) Working very hard to fulfill it

3) Having the confidence of victory

4) Communicating clearly and sincerely

5) Taking everyone along

6) Towering over challenges

7) Smiling through it all !!!

I am convinced that you will bring back Ache din to my beautiful country.
Make it Sabse Accha Bharat- Hindustan!
 



Thursday, May 15, 2014

Narendra Modi - a spoonful of sugar...


India- the biggest democracy of the world, representing a sixth of the world's population went to polls last month. The world watched & followed every piece of news about it! Just the whole process of elections has been a miracle in itself. Hundreds of thousands of workers, volunteers, media hours,kilmometers traveled,buses/cars used,rallies addressed & attended. With the rising summer heat, arguments,tempers, promises,allegations- everything heated up! In my entire adult life, the last one month has been the most politically charged up!

Now,over a billion Indians are waiting with excited anticipation for May 16th. An entire nation is collectively looking forward to a new beginning with renewed hope. Though the result is a forgone conclusion, as it appears from all the exit polls, the country will be glued to its TV sets & computers to follow the results as they unravel constituency by constituency.

I will miss the excitement as I will be on a flight to US. I feel really bad about it. Hopefully the wi fi on the flight should help to get news online.

But as the dust settles down, excitement ebbs, cabinet is formed & hard work of running the country begins- that's when the rubber will hit the road.

In his interview to Arnab,Narendra Modiji said that running a Government & running a nation are two completely different things! That is precisely why I am looking forward to him running my nation- just like the majority of the people in the country are.

Here are my 10 reasons why...

1) Development, Development,Development

2) Growth & Governance not just Government

3) Corruption & corrupt - both out of the window

4) National security & tough stand on terrorism

5) Focus on Education & Employability

6) Revival of India Shining

7) Rational, practical. sensible policies

8) Control Inflation

9) A Prime Minister who has pride in his country!

10) A Prime Minister who will have his own voice & make it heard to the world!

Just like Mary Poppins got a spoonful of sugar to make the medicine go down, I am confident the Gujarati touch of sugar in all its food, will make it easier for India to swallow its bitter pill of the past & forge ahead with strength, spirit & smiles!




Sunday, May 11, 2014

Happy Mother's Day

Today is Mother's Day. Actually everyday is and should be mother's day.Nevertheless, in the spirit of the celebration today, I wanted to offer my tribute and pay my respects to the Mothers of the world.

A mother means unconditional love. A mother means unconditional sacrifice. A mother means always, almost always keeping others interests ahead of hers. A mother means a friend. A mother means the 2 am, 8 am, 9 pm go to person. A mother means someone, who no matter what and how you behave with her, will continue to treat you like nothing happened. A mother means someone you take for granted and throw tantrums at. Having a mother- the biggest blessing of life.

Today is the day to celebrate all the mums of the world. I feel, being a mother, is one of the toughest job going around in the world ! You have to be sure that every word you say, every action you take & everything you do is right for your child. Every decision you make is a hanging sword - is this the right thing I am doing? A friend of mine once said, from the day you become a mom, a tiny ounce of fear for your child's well being is forever with you! Discipline or love, indulgence or rules, ask or tell & thousands of such paradoxes are a daily battle for every mom as she brings up her child.

Yet, each of us, when we look back can only say our moms were the best moms. As you grow older, everything your mom did, only seems like a miracle. Often we discuss- I wonder how my mom brought me up, isnt it!

My special gratitude to 5 such miracle moms

Mummy- my mother ( for just being the superwoman tha she is!)

Ma - my mother in law( for being the rock of gibraltar of our family)

Paati- Gurudev's H H Sri Sri Ravi Shankar's mother ( for her infinite benevolence in blessing the universe with our Master)

Didi - Bhanudidi ( for being a mother friend to hundreds of us around the globe)

Maushis/Atyas - all my aunts who have showered me with as much love always

I can only admire all of them. Even when I see the children of all my friends, my nephews and nieces, I cant but be in awe of how fabulous moms my friends and sisters are! Caring, nurturing, carefully moulding, laughing,crying, joyfully rejoicing, priding,lauding, contentedly smiling- moms do it all !

It is said, "A child gives birth to a mother". On this Mother's day, it is worth reflecting on how much of the above we have all done ! Biologically,many of us may not be moms. But spiritually, everyone we have touched with our love and care is our child. With this broad vision of our life, we can make the whole world our family! A one world family - Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam. This is my experience!

Happy Mother's Day !







Friday, May 9, 2014

Avoid big bets now; budget & monsoon key triggers: Ajay Bagga


Long time market watcher Ajay Bagga advises investors against taking any big calls at this point in time. He expects Budget and monsoon to play a major role over the next few months. "India remains an attractive destination for international investors," he told CNBC-TV18. Bagga expects money flow into India to rise irrespective of poll outcome. He prefers private banks over PSU banks. He is also positive on consumer discretionary and capital goods spaces. He says investor can bet on midcap space if bullish on Indian economy.
Below is the interview of Ajay Bagga with Latha Venkatesh and Sonia Shenoy on CNBC-TV18.
 Latha: What is your view on the immediate run up? Also, will you advise investors to dip their toes in? 
Ajay: It’s a very tough call to make and only on the May 16 will we now as to who is right and who isn’t. So, it is better to stay on the sidelines. As we are witnessing in the market itself, after a five-day fall, it was only yesterday that it picked up. But then again, in the last hour, we saw some selling coming in. So, I would say that the people are lightening their positions and waiting on the sidelines. Taking a big call right now isn’t worth it. Of course, given a long-term perspective, being, as you have already mentioned—a six-month or a six-year period, one should definitely buy. But you can also wait out and see what happens on May 16, by when you will get some clarity and then the next event will directly be the July budget. So, with the new government, you might see some announcements and some market euphoria coming in. But the main crux would be the new budget and the monsoon season. Monsoon has considerable impact since agriculture constitutes 13-14 percent of the GDP and 49 percent of the population is dependent on it. And if you see the derived consumption coming out of agriculture, then the impact of monsoon-- mainly the southwest monsoon, which causes three-fourths of the annual rainfall, is huge and is not looking too good, as per early predictions.

Sonia: So far the market has discarded all the global fears with respect to Ukraine, do you think that it will come back to bite the market post the election results or do you think that Ukraine is not a big issue?
Ajay: It is very difficult to comment on the issue of Ukraine. Though the Europeans who are nearer to the troubled spot seem to be calmer than the Americans, the issue could easily escalate, at a quick pace. So, I would consider that as one way of looking at it. It is probably being portrayed bigger than it actually is, since had it been otherwise, the Germans would have been more bothered than the Americans are. So more than Ukraine, I think, overall, on a one year basis, the rise in interest rates in the US -- the taper comes off by October, the Fed, the bond buying programme-- which goes off at current rates and then, once the rates start going up, what happens to the global liquidity will be something to look at. Peripheral Europe is recovering very fast. Once it has recovered, more investments will go into peripheral Europe and Eastern Europe than in emerging Asia. These will then turn into bigger factors but even then, India stays as a very attractive destination. We have been under-owned and even in valuation terms, we have seen the FIIs increasing their holdings in India while promoters and domestic investors have been on the sidelines or exiting. So, I would expect more money to come in; irrespective of what happens on May 16 on a one year basis.

 Latha: For a stock-picker, is it a good time to get into public sector undertaking (PSU) banks; which is the big cyclical play everyone is talking about at present?
Ajay: Yes, I think that the smart money is talking about it. They have been hammered quite a bit. One word of caution from my side would be that-- given the basel guidelines, you will have equity dilution throughout. So, if you are talking of something like Rs 500,000 crore of capitalization for tier-I and tier-II, you will keep getting diluted if you are at half time the book or one time the book, unlike the private sector banks where you are getting valuation premium and have a much higher beta with a growing economy. Therefore, valuation wise PSU banks have a lot of overhang of non-performing assets (NPAs) and equity dilution. I would say that a closer bet would be private sector banks since you will probably make more money on them.

Read more at: http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/market-outlook/avoid-big-bets-now-budgetmonsoon-key-triggers-bagga_1079947.html?utm_source=ref_article

hhLong time market watcher Ajay Bagga advises investors against taking any big calls at this point in time. He expects Budget and monsoon to play a major role over the next few months. "India remains an attractive destination for international investors," he told CNBC-TV18. Bagga expects money flow into India to rise irrespective of poll outcome. He prefers private banks over PSU banks. He is also positive on consumer discretionary and capital goods spaces. He says investor can bet on midcap space if bullish on Indian economy. Below is the interview of Ajay Bagga with Latha Venkatesh and Sonia Shenoy on CNBC-TV18. Latha: What is your view on the immediate run up? Also, will you advise investors to dip their toes in? A: It’s a very tough call to make and only on the May 16 will we now as to who is right and who isn’t. So, it is better to stay on the sidelines. As we are witnessing in the market itself, after a five-day fall, it was only yesterday that it picked up. But then again, in the last hour, we saw some selling coming in. So, I would say that the people are lightening their positions and waiting on the sidelines. Taking a big call right now isn’t worth it. Of course, given a long-term perspective, being, as you have already mentioned—a six-month or a six-year period, one should definitely buy. But you can also wait out and see what happens on May 16, by when you will get some clarity and then the next event will directly be the July budget. So, with the new government, you might see some announcements and some market euphoria coming in. But the main crux would be the new budget and the monsoon season. Monsoon has considerable impact since agriculture constitutes 13-14 percent of the GDP and 49 percent of the population is dependent on it. And if you see the derived consumption coming out of agriculture, then the impact of monsoon-- mainly the southwest monsoon, which causes three-fourths of the annual rainfall, is huge and is not looking too good, as per early predictions. Sonia: So far the market has discarded all the global fears with respect to Ukraine, do you think that it will come back to bite the market post the election results or do you think that Ukraine is not a big issue? A: It is very difficult to comment on the issue of Ukraine. Though the Europeans who are nearer to the troubled spot seem to be calmer than the Americans, the issue could easily escalate, at a quick pace. So, I would consider that as one way of looking at it. It is probably being portrayed bigger than it actually is, since had it been otherwise, the Germans would have been more bothered than the Americans are. So more than Ukraine, I think, overall, on a one year basis, the rise in interest rates in the US -- the taper comes off by October, the Fed, the bond buying programme-- which goes off at current rates and then, once the rates start going up, what happens to the global liquidity will be something to look at. Peripheral Europe is recovering very fast. Once it has recovered, more investments will go into peripheral Europe and Eastern Europe than in emerging Asia. These will then turn into bigger factors but even then, India stays as a very attractive destination. We have been under-owned and even in valuation terms, we have seen the FIIs increasing their holdings in India while promoters and domestic investors have been on the sidelines or exiting. So, I would expect more money to come in; irrespective of what happens on May 16 on a one year basis. Latha: For a stock-picker, is it a good time to get into public sector undertaking (PSU) banks; which is the big cyclical play everyone is talking about at present? A: Yes, I think that the smart money is talking about it. They have been hammered quite a bit. One word of caution from my side would be that-- given the basel guidelines, you will have equity dilution throughout. So, if you are talking of something like Rs 500,000 crore of capitalization for tier-I and tier-II, you will keep getting diluted if you are at half time the book or one time the book, unlike the private sector banks where you are getting valuation premium and have a much higher beta with a growing economy. Therefore, valuation wise PSU banks have a lot of overhang of non-performing assets (NPAs) and equity dilution. I would say that a closer bet would be private sector banks since you will probably make more money on them.

Read more at: http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/market-outlook/avoid-big-bets-now-budgetmonsoon-key-triggers-bagga_1079947.html?utm_source=ref_article
Long time market watcher Ajay Bagga advises investors against taking any big calls at this point in time. He expects Budget and monsoon to play a major role over the next few months. "India remains an attractive destination for international investors," he told CNBC-TV18. Bagga expects money flow into India to rise irrespective of poll outcome. He prefers private banks over PSU banks. He is also positive on consumer discretionary and capital goods spaces. He says investor can bet on midcap space if bullish on Indian economy. Below is the interview of Ajay Bagga with Latha Venkatesh and Sonia Shenoy on CNBC-TV18. Latha: What is your view on the immediate run up? Also, will you advise investors to dip their toes in? A: It’s a very tough call to make and only on the May 16 will we now as to who is right and who isn’t. So, it is better to stay on the sidelines. As we are witnessing in the market itself, after a five-day fall, it was only yesterday that it picked up. But then again, in the last hour, we saw some selling coming in. So, I would say that the people are lightening their positions and waiting on the sidelines. Taking a big call right now isn’t worth it. Of course, given a long-term perspective, being, as you have already mentioned—a six-month or a six-year period, one should definitely buy. But you can also wait out and see what happens on May 16, by when you will get some clarity and then the next event will directly be the July budget. So, with the new government, you might see some announcements and some market euphoria coming in. But the main crux would be the new budget and the monsoon season. Monsoon has considerable impact since agriculture constitutes 13-14 percent of the GDP and 49 percent of the population is dependent on it. And if you see the derived consumption coming out of agriculture, then the impact of monsoon-- mainly the southwest monsoon, which causes three-fourths of the annual rainfall, is huge and is not looking too good, as per early predictions. Sonia: So far the market has discarded all the global fears with respect to Ukraine, do you think that it will come back to bite the market post the election results or do you think that Ukraine is not a big issue? A: It is very difficult to comment on the issue of Ukraine. Though the Europeans who are nearer to the troubled spot seem to be calmer than the Americans, the issue could easily escalate, at a quick pace. So, I would consider that as one way of looking at it. It is probably being portrayed bigger than it actually is, since had it been otherwise, the Germans would have been more bothered than the Americans are. So more than Ukraine, I think, overall, on a one year basis, the rise in interest rates in the US -- the taper comes off by October, the Fed, the bond buying programme-- which goes off at current rates and then, once the rates start going up, what happens to the global liquidity will be something to look at. Peripheral Europe is recovering very fast. Once it has recovered, more investments will go into peripheral Europe and Eastern Europe than in emerging Asia. These will then turn into bigger factors but even then, India stays as a very attractive destination. We have been under-owned and even in valuation terms, we have seen the FIIs increasing their holdings in India while promoters and domestic investors have been on the sidelines or exiting. So, I would expect more money to come in; irrespective of what happens on May 16 on a one year basis. Latha: For a stock-picker, is it a good time to get into public sector undertaking (PSU) banks; which is the big cyclical play everyone is talking about at present? A: Yes, I think that the smart money is talking about it. They have been hammered quite a bit. One word of caution from my side would be that-- given the basel guidelines, you will have equity dilution throughout. So, if you are talking of something like Rs 500,000 crore of capitalization for tier-I and tier-II, you will keep getting diluted if you are at half time the book or one time the book, unlike the private sector banks where you are getting valuation premium and have a much higher beta with a growing economy. Therefore, valuation wise PSU banks have a lot of overhang of non-performing assets (NPAs) and equity dilution. I would say that a closer bet would be private sector banks since you will probably make more money on them.

Read more at: http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/market-outlook/avoid-big-bets-now-budgetmonsoon-key-triggers-bagga_1079947.html?utm_source=ref_article
Long time market watcher Ajay Bagga advises investors against taking any big calls at this point in time. He expects Budget and monsoon to play a major role over the next few months. "India remains an attractive destination for international investors," he told CNBC-TV18. Bagga expects money flow into India to rise irrespective of poll outcome. He prefers private banks over PSU banks. He is also positive on consumer discretionary and capital goods spaces. He says investor can bet on midcap space if bullish on Indian economy. Below is the interview of Ajay Bagga with Latha Venkatesh and Sonia Shenoy on CNBC-TV18. Latha: What is your view on the immediate run up? Also, will you advise investors to dip their toes in? A: It’s a very tough call to make and only on the May 16 will we now as to who is right and who isn’t. So, it is better to stay on the sidelines. As we are witnessing in the market itself, after a five-day fall, it was only yesterday that it picked up. But then again, in the last hour, we saw some selling coming in. So, I would say that the people are lightening their positions and waiting on the sidelines. Taking a big call right now isn’t worth it. Of course, given a long-term perspective, being, as you have already mentioned—a six-month or a six-year period, one should definitely buy. But you can also wait out and see what happens on May 16, by when you will get some clarity and then the next event will directly be the July budget. So, with the new government, you might see some announcements and some market euphoria coming in. But the main crux would be the new budget and the monsoon season. Monsoon has considerable impact since agriculture constitutes 13-14 percent of the GDP and 49 percent of the population is dependent on it. And if you see the derived consumption coming out of agriculture, then the impact of monsoon-- mainly the southwest monsoon, which causes three-fourths of the annual rainfall, is huge and is not looking too good, as per early predictions. Sonia: So far the market has discarded all the global fears with respect to Ukraine, do you think that it will come back to bite the market post the election results or do you think that Ukraine is not a big issue? A: It is very difficult to comment on the issue of Ukraine. Though the Europeans who are nearer to the troubled spot seem to be calmer than the Americans, the issue could easily escalate, at a quick pace. So, I would consider that as one way of looking at it. It is probably being portrayed bigger than it actually is, since had it been otherwise, the Germans would have been more bothered than the Americans are. So more than Ukraine, I think, overall, on a one year basis, the rise in interest rates in the US -- the taper comes off by October, the Fed, the bond buying programme-- which goes off at current rates and then, once the rates start going up, what happens to the global liquidity will be something to look at. Peripheral Europe is recovering very fast. Once it has recovered, more investments will go into peripheral Europe and Eastern Europe than in emerging Asia. These will then turn into bigger factors but even then, India stays as a very attractive destination. We have been under-owned and even in valuation terms, we have seen the FIIs increasing their holdings in India while promoters and domestic investors have been on the sidelines or exiting. So, I would expect more money to come in; irrespective of what happens on May 16 on a one year basis. Latha: For a stock-picker, is it a good time to get into public sector undertaking (PSU) banks; which is the big cyclical play everyone is talking about at present? A: Yes, I think that the smart money is talking about it. They have been hammered quite a bit. One word of caution from my side would be that-- given the basel guidelines, you will have equity dilution throughout. So, if you are talking of something like Rs 500,000 crore of capitalization for tier-I and tier-II, you will keep getting diluted if you are at half time the book or one time the book, unlike the private sector banks where you are getting valuation premium and have a much higher beta with a growing economy. Therefore, valuation wise PSU banks have a lot of overhang of non-performing assets (NPAs) and equity dilution. I would say that a closer bet would be private sector banks since you will probably make more money on them.

Read more at: http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/market-outlook/avoid-big-bets-now-budgetmonsoon-key-triggers-bagga_1079947.html?utm_source=ref_article

The 5Cs of Leadership & Success

 Narendra Modijis interview yesterday on Times Now led to 170 million tweets today! 

The whole country was talking about it. Every sentence he spoke was discussed and debated. Every  gesture was analysed. What was not spoken was analysed even more .Today Sensex crossed 23,000 level for the first time, Nifty hits life-time high of 6,870! Vinod Mehta said on TV today that he is ready to stick his neck and say that Narendra Modi ji will be India's next Prime Minister.

What is it about this interview that is creating this hard positive impact ? Continuing my distillation of yesterdays interview, here are 5 Cs on the connection between leadership and success.

1) Confidence begets confidence

2) Carrying all togetther ensures all resources are deployed

3) Courage charges the team

4) Connectedness & Care inspires

5) Commitment ensures success

Seems like he is reflecting all these 5 Cs that is already bringing winds of success in the markets already!

Thursday, May 8, 2014

10 Leadership lessons from Narendra Modiji's interview with Arnab on Times Now


The country watched with rapt attention the just telecast interview of Narendra Modiji on Times Now.
Social media, BBM /Whatsapp etc  are all abuzz with views, comments and perceptions about this interview. Personally,I really enjoyed it. Mainly for the leadership lessons I got out of it.  Modiji gave a top class, super distilled leadership session for us absolutely free. Thanks Modiji. Here is the list of lessons I got. Please add yours.

1) Be optimistic & confident

2) Work very hard

3) Institutionalise an idea

4) Empower the team

5) Have clarity, be sure about facts

6) Give the entire credit to the team

7) Be tough and courageous

8) Dont hesitate to apologise

9) An objection can become an opportunity for growth

10) Voice, Body Language, Smile counts!
 
 
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